Illustrative image (Source: VNA)In its recent research, securities firm VNDIRECT held that most of countries have removed the restriction for tourists, and this will boost both outbound and inbound travel demand.
It noted that international arrival throughput jumped 35 times yearon year in the third quarter of 2022, recovering to 49.8% of pre-pandemic level.
In the base case scenario, the firm expected China to gradually relax the travel restriction from the second quarter of 2023. Thus, the internationalinflow recovery rate might reach 84% in the second quarter of 2023 and 100% in thefourth quarter to help the total international volume to grow 195% year onyear in 2023.
Having high revenue exposure to international air travel,airport retailers will be the most beneficiaries of the recovery of internationalarrivals, according to the report.
For airport, VNDIRECT held that the growth is crystal clearbut might be dented since 2024 onwards due to the capacity constraints. Therecovery prospect of airlines is overshadowed by high fuel price, exchange ratevolatility, and rising interest rates.
VNDIRECT experts also give forecast on the recovery of majorair traffic markets of Vietnam.
It noted that Vietnam's major air traffic markets in SoutheastAsia including Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia have all fully reopened anddeveloped bilateral tourism with the country. It expects international visits from SEAto recover to the pre-pandemic level by the first quarter of 2023.
VNDIRECT also predicted that international arrivals from Europe willrecover to the pre-pandemic level by the second quarter of 2023, and those fromRussia by the third quarter of 2023.
India is considered a potential new market for Vietnam'stourism. Vietjet Air, Vietnam Airlines, and India's IndiGo and Spice Jet havelaunched new routes between the two countries. In particular, Vietjet Air hasbeen granted the right to operate more than 20 new routes from Hanoi, Ho ChiMinh City, Da Nang, and Phu Quoc to new destinations in India such as Bangalore,Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Chennai, Kolkata, Gaya as well as increase the flightfrequency to Delhi and Mumbai from July 2022.
VNDIRECT predicted that international visitors on this route willreach 5% of the total recorded in the whole market before the pandemic broke bythe second quarter of 2023./.
VNA
