Dr. Can Van Luc, chief economist at the Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV) (Photo: VNA)The first highlight was that the GDP grew quarter overquarter and by 5.05% for the whole year, higher than the global average of about2.9% and the ASEAN average of 4.3%, he told a recent conference between theGovernment and local administrations.
Elaborating the second highlight, the economic expert saidindustrial production recovered from the minus 8% recorded duringthe first months to 3% by the end of 2023. The decline in exports graduallyeased during the year, from minus 26% to minus 4.4%.
Businesses recovered and faced fewer difficulties as seen in thenumber of new companies, which used to be lower than those withdrawing from themarket but became 1.3 times higher in the fourth quarter.
Luc pointed out that tourism also bounced back whileagriculture successfully weathered headwinds.
In addition, the macro-economy was basicallystable. Inflation stood at 3.25%, compared to the 5.5% worldwide. The coreinflation fell to 4.16% from the previous figure of 5.1%, showing thatinflation decreased rather sustainably. Foreign exchange rates were kept stable and the financial and monetary markets basically controlled well amidmultiple risks in the world, especially the recent bankruptcies of large banksin the US and Switzerland.
He went on to say that fiscal risks were at a moderate level, and public and foreign debts, budget deficit, while theGovernment’s debt repayment liability were within permissible levels set by theNational Assembly (NA). Food security was guaranteed; while the stock, corporatebond, and real estate markets also gradually recovered though many risksremain. Given this, Vietnam’s credit rating was upgraded by Fitch Ratings.
The third highlight lies in the highly impressive results ofeconomic integration and people-to-people diplomacy, he added.
The automobile plant of VinFast in Dinh Vu Industrial Park in Cat Hai district, Hai Phong city (Photo: VNA)The second lesson was to pay attention to and carry outplans, Luc said, noting that many important laws and policies for tackling difficultiesin the fields of health care, education, land, construction, real estate,capital, and tourism were issued and implemented strongly.
The third was the consensus across the political system. Guidelinesof the Party, legislation, and law enforcement were carried out rathercomprehensively, with the engagement of the NA, the Government, ministries,sectors, localities, and businesses.
He forecast in 2024, the global economywill basically stay flat or decline compared to 2023. Inflation will fall butremain high, interest rates around the world will also be very high, and therewill be numerous risks to energy and food security, negatively affectinginvestment, consumption, and export in Vietnam.
The country needs to exert all-out efforts to reach the NAand Government’s targets for growth of 6 - 6.5% and inflation of 3.5 - 4%,according to the expert./.
VNA
