NCEIF Director Tran Thi Hong Minh speaks at the conference. (Photo: VNA)Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecastto expand 7 percent during 2021-2025 on the back of new-generation free tradeagreements, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment’s NationalCentre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast (NCEIF).
At a workshop “Vietnam Economy Perspectives for 2021-2025: Opportunities andChallenges from New Generation Free Trade Agreements” in Hanoi on November 21,NCEIF Director Tran Thi Hong Minh stressed free trade deals, particularly theComprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)and the EU–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) will have enormous impacts onthe economy during the period.
She held that the CPTPP and EVFTA have wider range of commitments than otherfree trade pacts as they cover import and export terms while setting productionmethods for goods exchanges. In general, they have positive influence on economicgrowth, especially in markets of the signatories.
The EVFTA and CPTPP could help increase Vietnam’s GDP by 4.3 percent and 1.3percent, respectively by 2030, she said, adding shipments to the EU areexpected to surge some 44.4 percent by 2030 while those to CPTPP member statesare forecast to pick up 14.3 percent by 2035.
“They will exert influence on the Vietnamese economy in mid- and long-terms asthey put pressure on the Government to improve institutions and businessclimate”, she said.
There is a strong possibility that the GDP growth could reach 7 percent peryear during 2021-2015, with stable macro-economy, inflation rate projected at3.5-4.5 percent each year and labour productivity growth reaching around 6.3percent per year.
In another scenario, Vietnam’s GDP could expand 7.5 percent if the country cantake advantage of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, improve quality ofinvestment attraction, and well develop the modern economy.
Meanwhile, Tran Toan Thang, an official from the NCEIF, said the EVFTA andCPTPP’s commitments are higher than WTO in terms of investment openness,investment protection and dispute settlement, and they help Vietnam promoteexports as well as improve supply chains.
Although Vietnam can improve its competitive capacity in terms of market scaleand labour productivity, it could take time for the country to betterinfrastructure, innovation and technology readiness.
Therefore, the country should work more to renew its growth model, acceleratekey drivers of economic growth, and make good use of opportunities from globalintegration, science-technology development and the Fourth IndustrialRevolution, he suggested./.
VNA
