Goods in containers for export at the Saigon Tan Cang seaport. (Photo: VNA)Good supply disruptions and high input material prices forproduction make many major economies in the world, such as the US and theEuropean Union (EU), forecast challenges and risk falling into recession.
High inflation in markets, especially the main export markets of Vietnam,also reduces the demand for consumer goods.
Meanwhile, consumer goods are essential export products of Vietnam,such as textiles, footwear, and furniture. Therefore, those would also directlyaffect the export growth trend of these products shortly, Trang said.
BIDV Securities Joint Stock Company (BSC) has also stated that thegrowth rate of import and export slows down when the consumption of theAmerican people has a downtrend amid a sharp increase in interest rates.
BSC offers two scenarios based on the possibility of a recessionin the world's largest economy.
In the first scenario, if the US has an economic recession in2022, Vietnam could increase exports by 13.1% and imports by 12.6%.
In the second, if the US faces an economic recession in 2023, Vietnamcould increase exports by 18% and imports by 17.3%.
In the latest report, Rong Viet Securities (VDSC) said there aremany concerns to the domestic economy in the fourth quarter because the Fed hascontinued tightening monetary policy, leading to increasing discussion aboutrisks of economic recession in the US.
Meanwhile, the European market is likely to deteriorate as theenergy crisis increases in the winter.
Therefore, VDSC experts forecast that industrial production andexport growth will slow down in the fourth quarter, but the level of declinewill be moderate.
In addition, Trang has also pointed out that China is both a rawmaterial supply market and a large export market for Vietnam. Therefore,China's maintenance of strict measures to prevent and control the COVID-19pandemic also affects the export activities and the supply of raw materials forVietnam and Vietnam's goods exports to the world.
However, with participation in bilateral and multilateral FreeTrade Agreements (FTAs) and experiences in trade activities, Vietnam may limitrisks in exports.
The positive export results of the first nine months will support Vietnamto reach the target on import and export in 2022 and even exceed the settargets.
In this context, Trang has recommended that businesses proactivelyupdate information about the world and import markets. Since then, they havechanged management policies, production and business plans. At the same time,they should plan to diversify export and import markets.
"With many solutions, the Ministry of Industry and Tradealways accompanies businesses, especially the system of Vietnam trade officesabroad and the early warning system. They will promptly provide information onthe market, helping the enterprises to soon diversify export and import marketstowards the sustainable development of exports and imports," Trang said.
She said that import and export continued to be a bright spotin Vietnam's economic picture in the first nine months of 2022, with exportvalue at an increase of 17.2% to 282 billion USD. As a result, the nation gaineda trade surplus of over 6.8 billion USD.
The export growth of product groups, enterprise sectors, andmarkets was similar and stable. For example, the group of agriculture, forestryand fishery increased by nearly 15%, while the group of processing industryrose by 17%.
Meanwhile, the export growth also reached 15% for domesticenterprises and 17% for foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises.
Notably, in the first nine months of 2022, Vietnam's exportsrecorded double-digit growth in many markets, especially those with free tradeagreements (FTAs) with Vietnam, such as Canada, the Republic of Korea andJapan.
In the first nine months of 2022, the nation saw a trade surplusof 6.8 billion USD, and some major export markets still recorded positivegrowth figures against the same period of last year.
However, in September, export growth slowed and the growth ratedecreased by 14% compared to the previous month, mainly in electronics,computers and phones. Therefore, the growth rate in the third quarter alsodecreased against the previous quarter.
It should be noted that the third quarter is usually a quarterwith a high trade surplus and contributes most to the trade surplus./.
VNA
