Illustrative image (Source: VNA)Hanoi (VNA) - Vietnam has strengthened its position, and could become the world’s 10th biggest exporter by 2050, with its export value reaching 1,437 billion USD, the HSBC forecast in its recent report.
The report identified three distinct waves of global trade development. The first was from 1865 to 1913, the second from 1950 to 2007 and the third set to run from 2015 to 2050.
The bank’s forecast is for the third wave of globalisation.
However, Nguyen Tri Hieu, a domestic economist, held that it would be difficult for Vietnam to become the 10th largest exporter worldwide in the next few decades.
He explained that apart from Vietnam, many other countries will grow at even faster paces.
Vietnam’s great export potential, especially in farm produce, fishery products, garments-textiles and consumer goods, as well as its engagement in bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements would help the country spur its export growth, but it would not make the dream of being the world’s 10th largest exporter come true, Hieu said.
The report also pointed out that the map of world trade created by this third wave of globalisation may look very different from today’s, as shifting demog raphics and economics - with almost 3 billion people joining the middle class by 2050, most of who m will be in emerging markets - lead to significant shifts in trade patterns , the report said.
The Asia-Pacific’s share of global exports is forecast to rise fr om around a third in 2015 to 46 percent in 2050. Meanwhile, Western Europe’s share is expected to decline from 34 percent to 22 percent, and North America’s to fall from 11 percent to 9 percent.
Asia is poised to ignite a decade of global trade growth and be the starting point for a quadrupling of world wide exports to an estimated 68.5 trillion USD by 2050 , the report said.
Led by a burst of intra-Asian trade that will lift the region’s share of global exports to 27 percent by 2050 from 17 percent at present, the surge will mark a third wave of globalisation anchored by new technologies and increasing economic integration.
The next few years should carry the global economy into the next wave of globalisation, critically underpinned by sophisticated and pervasive digital technology that reduces international trade barriers, improves communication between cultures, levels the playing field for entrepreneurs and startups, and forms the foundation for an “always-on” global economy, the report said.
Paul Skelton, HSBC’s regional head of Commercial Banking, Asia Pacific, said t he importance of trade’s contribution to global growth and prosperity cannot be underestimated.
Asia’s position at the leading edge of technological and supply chain innovation gives the region a unique opportunity to benefit from this next wave of globalisation, he said.
The report identifies four “trade winds” that will drive opportunity for the business leaders of today and tomorrow: the march of industrialisation and a shift to mass customisation; plummeting transport and logistics costs; further liberalisation of trade policy; and the evolution of more nimble business operating models.
Over the next 35 years, the four trade winds will continue to drive innovation and new thinking to help companies thrive and compete in a highly volatile and fast-paced global market, it said.-VNA
