A crowded street in Bangkok, Thailand (Photo: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/)Krungthai Compass estimates the domestic economic growth outlookunder two scenarios based on the coronavirus outbreak’s impact.
The government's stringent measures to contain the contagion,especially tight control in 28 red zone provinces, would largely affectdomestic demand and local tourism, said chief economist Phacharaphot Nuntramas.
For the first scenario, Krungthai Compass predicts thegovernment will maintain existing measures to contain the COVID-19 outbreakfrom January to February. This is projected to reduce local tourists to around110 million, with losses in consumer spending estimated at 167 billion baht (around5.5 billion USD).
The government's latest relief measures, which received cabinetapproval on Tuesday, should help shore up full-year economic growth momentum to2.5 percent in 2021, said Phacharaphot.
If the latest aid package is not implemented, the country's GDPgrowth this year would plunge to 1.5 percent, he said.
The second scenario sees the government's stringent measuresextended to March, with local tourists dipping to 101 million and losses inconsumer spending estimated at 239 billion baht.
Even with the government relief measures, Thai GDP would onlygrow by 2 percent in this scenario. Without the aid package, growth wouldexpand by only 1 percent.
Phacharaphot said domestic tourism is expected to take at leastthree months to recover, a similar duration following the end of the firstwave.
As domestic tourism is expected to gradually improve in thesecond half, this could cause unemployment to ease, he said./.
VNA
