Opas Karnkawinpong, Director-General of the Thai Department of Disease Control. (Photo: Bangkok Post)The ministry’s latest mathematical model shows thatwithout the tight restrictions now in place, new daily COVID-19 cases wouldexceed 40,000 by September 14 and fatalities would pass 500 a day by September 28,said Opas Karnkawinpong, Director-General of the Department of Disease Control.
The current measures took effect in 13 hard-hitprovinces including Bangkok on July 20 and are scheduled to end on August 2.Authorities are now considering extending the lockdowns.
The department’s analysis looked at the trend ininfections and deaths based on one- and two-month lockdowns from July 20.
If one month of lockdown measures — people stayinghome, working from home and a ban on public gatherings — can reduce infectionsby 20 percent, new daily cases would still be over 30,000 in early October, themodel shows. New fatalities would peak somewhere below 500 on October 26, Opas wascited by Bangkok Post as saying.
The country reported 17,345 new cases and 117 deathson July 30.
If lockdown measures reduce infections by 20-25percent but last two months, new daily cases would be above 20,000 in Octoberand November and fatalities would peak below 400 in mid-November.
The numbers improve significantly if two months ofrestrictions are complemented by stepped-up vaccination for elderly people,pregnant women and those with chronic health conditions, which the governmentis now conducting. In such a case, new daily fatalities would be still be over100 but would decline gradually, Opas said./.
VNA
