Containers being loaded at Cat Lai port in HCM City. (Photo: VNA)However, it is still an improvement from 5% in 2023. The country’sQ1 GDP growth moderated to 5.7% (from 6.7% in Q4-2023). The bank lowered Q2year-on-year growth forecast to 5.3% (from 6.3%) and Q3 to 6%. But Q4 growth isexpected to be recovered to 6.7%.
According to Standard Chartered’s economist in its recentmacro-economic updates about Vietnam, trade, a key source of growth andinvestment for Vietnam also faces short and long term challenges. However, Vietnam’srecovery remains intact despite risks. Retail sales growth was still robust inQ1.
Standard Chartered also lowers 2024 inflation forecast to 4.3%from 5.5 % to reflect lower-than-expected Q1 inflation. The bank expects ratesto stay on hold at 4.5% until end-Q3 and could be raised by 50 bps in Q4 inresponse to growth-driven inflation.
“Vietnam is improving its position in global supply chains.Foreign investment continues to be attracted by a favourable investmentenvironment and potential ramp-up of US-China trade tensions,” said TimLeelahaphan, Economist for Thailand and Vietnam, Standard Chartered. “Witheconomic recovery starting to gain momentum, we think there will be less needto provide monetary policy support”, he added.
According to Tim, there is a balanced view on the Vietnamese givenimprovements on the external front and reserve rebuilding. Strong export growthprovides some support for the currency. Imports point to further gains. Thebank forecasts a current account surplus of 3.5% GDP in 2024./.
VNA
