Workers at the Regent Garment Factory Ltd. in Hai Duong city. (Illustrative photo: VNA)Hanoi (VNA) - Vietnam’s business climate is anticipatedto improve in the second half of 2017, but economic growth will be at 6.5 percent,falling short of the Government’s target.
According to the forecast of the National Centre forSocio-Economic Information and Forecast under the Ministry of Planning andInvestment, economic growth in the remaining months will be fuelled by theimproving global economy, investment climate, prospects of internationalintegration and upbeat mood of businesses.
The second half of 2017 will witness significant impact from theGovernment’s reform policies and efforts implemented in 2016, which willsupport businesses and boost investment higher than last year.
The centre said economic growth will be positive when the threemajor drivers - agriculture, industry and services - all saw improvement.
The services sector witnessed two-year high growth in the firstseven months of this year, while the industry and construction sector isanticipated to continue recovery strongly, particularly the manufacturing andprocessing industry, along with a steady agricultural sector.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow is also anticipated tobenefit from the improving investment climate coupled with the country’s intensiveinternational integration as well as confidence of investors in the Vietnameseeconomy.
The centre estimated disbursed FDI would total 15.3 billionUSD in 2017.
“The increasing FDI inflow is expected to be a major driver forrecovery of export growth in the entire 2017,” the report stated.
However, the Vietnamese economy was facing a number ofdifficulties, especially following the US withdrawal from the Trans-PacificPartnership (TPP) agreement and trade protection policies.
In addition, uncertainty in global oil prices, which had fallen tobelow 50 USD per barrel, added to the risks.
“If oil prices continue to decline, Vietnam needs to considerincreasing oil exploitation output to meet the growth target,” the report said.
Oil prices would significantly affect inflation in the second halfof this year, but prices of goods were forecast to remain stable despite aslight increase in wages from the beginning of July.
The centre forecast inflation would be controlled at below five percentthis year, specifically at four percent.
GDP growth would be some 6.5 percent, lower than the Government’starget of 6.7 percent.
Many organisations recently forecast lower-than-target GDP growthfor Vietnam in 2017.
HSBC recently lowered its GDP forecast for Vietnam to six percentthis year, down from its previous forecast of 6.4 percent.
The International Monetary Fund forecast Vietnamese economicgrowth at 6.3 percent, down from an estimate of 6.5 percent published in May.
The World Bank (WB) projected the Vietnamese economy to grow at6.3 percent this year.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) maintained its growth forecastfor the Vietnamese economy at 6.5 percent in 2017 and 6.7 percent in 2018.-VNA
According to the forecast of the National Centre forSocio-Economic Information and Forecast under the Ministry of Planning andInvestment, economic growth in the remaining months will be fuelled by theimproving global economy, investment climate, prospects of internationalintegration and upbeat mood of businesses.
The second half of 2017 will witness significant impact from theGovernment’s reform policies and efforts implemented in 2016, which willsupport businesses and boost investment higher than last year.
The centre said economic growth will be positive when the threemajor drivers - agriculture, industry and services - all saw improvement.
The services sector witnessed two-year high growth in the firstseven months of this year, while the industry and construction sector isanticipated to continue recovery strongly, particularly the manufacturing andprocessing industry, along with a steady agricultural sector.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow is also anticipated tobenefit from the improving investment climate coupled with the country’s intensiveinternational integration as well as confidence of investors in the Vietnameseeconomy.
The centre estimated disbursed FDI would total 15.3 billionUSD in 2017.
“The increasing FDI inflow is expected to be a major driver forrecovery of export growth in the entire 2017,” the report stated.
However, the Vietnamese economy was facing a number ofdifficulties, especially following the US withdrawal from the Trans-PacificPartnership (TPP) agreement and trade protection policies.
In addition, uncertainty in global oil prices, which had fallen tobelow 50 USD per barrel, added to the risks.
“If oil prices continue to decline, Vietnam needs to considerincreasing oil exploitation output to meet the growth target,” the report said.
Oil prices would significantly affect inflation in the second halfof this year, but prices of goods were forecast to remain stable despite aslight increase in wages from the beginning of July.
The centre forecast inflation would be controlled at below five percentthis year, specifically at four percent.
GDP growth would be some 6.5 percent, lower than the Government’starget of 6.7 percent.
Many organisations recently forecast lower-than-target GDP growthfor Vietnam in 2017.
HSBC recently lowered its GDP forecast for Vietnam to six percentthis year, down from its previous forecast of 6.4 percent.
The International Monetary Fund forecast Vietnamese economicgrowth at 6.3 percent, down from an estimate of 6.5 percent published in May.
The World Bank (WB) projected the Vietnamese economy to grow at6.3 percent this year.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) maintained its growth forecastfor the Vietnamese economy at 6.5 percent in 2017 and 6.7 percent in 2018.-VNA
VNA
