Vietnam is an example with a high coverage rate. (Photo: VNA)The first trend is climate change. According to Evans, climate change is both an opportunity and a challenge for acountry like Vietnam. As a nation with an extensive coastline and one of theworld’s most important rice producers, the prospect of rising sea levels andfalling crop yields is a threat to its well-being and prosperity.
The Mekong Delta is on the front line of climate change. Ifaction is not taken now, Asia could face between 2.8 trillion USD and 4.7trillion USD in lost annual GDP by 2050, accounting for two thirds of the world’sloss caused by climate change, he said, adding that the negative impacts ofclimate change could reduce Vietnam’s national income by up to 3.5 percent by2050.
He emphasised the importance for Vietnam to work hard toreduce its dependence on coal both as a source of power generation and as amajor export. Coal currently accounts for about a third of the country’s operatingenergy mix but the government has recently committed to cutting it to less than10 percent by 2045 and boosting renewables to more than half from today’s 12percent.
The second trend is digitalisation, as the COVID-19 pandemichas accelerated the shift towards a seamless digital world and has triggeredchanges in consumers’ behaviour that are likely to have lasting effects.
CEO of HSBC Vietnam Tim Evans (Photo: VNA) Regarding vaccine equity, recent events have shown thatunless every country and community can obtain vaccines quickly and fairly, noone will be able to return to normal, and a truly global economic recovery willnot be possible.
Vietnam has been a model in this regard. Almost 80 percentof the population has already been vaccinated, one of the highest rates in theworld. The Ministry of Health has set a target to complete the vaccinationcampaign for children aged 5 to 11 in the second quarter of this year.
This is a significant achievement considering the positionthe nation was in 12 months ago. There is an opportunity to use this expertiseto help neighbouring countries to reach herd immunity. Unless they can achievesimilar rates, Southeast Asia’s regional recovery will fail to reach its fullpotential. A prime example is Thailand, a major hub for tourists en route toVietnam, where the rates are still high.
Strengthening global cooperation in vaccine research anddevelopment would help countries that struggle to compete with richer nationsto obtain affordable vaccines and key medical supplies, he said.
The fourth trend is trade, Evans said, noting that tradestill offers the shortest and most direct route back to economic growth.
So far, Vietnam has signed 15 free trade agreements (FTAs) –including the recent Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership which has beenin force since the beginning of this year – making it one of the most openeconomies globally. These FTAs are expected to play a major role in boostingeconomic growth this year. Since the nation has fully opened its borders forinternational travel since March, the government wants to ensure that thecountry returns to its pre-pandemic growth cadence. This strategic goal can beachieved with the aid of Vietnam’s FTAs and other bilateral agreements.
The ratification of these agreements will open up a world ofopportunities for Vietnamese corporates. Challenges remain as the country willneed to embark on further domestic reforms to ensure it can remain competitive.The country will also need to continue to work with other Asian nations to facilitatecross-regional investment flows and dismantle non-tariff barriers if the regionis to reach its full trade potential, he said.
Regarding geopolitics, the HSBC Vietnam leader said that theongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to continue to inject unwelcomeuncertainty into the global economy. Vietnam’s openness and principled stand onsettling international disputes by peaceful means and in accordance withinternational law is a valuable voice in a confused international environment.
The inclination to withdraw within one’s own borders attimes of turmoil and uncertainty is natural but misguided. The biggest issuescan only be overcome with greater collaboration.
Finally, for inequality and an inclusive recovery, Evansstressed that the impact of the pandemic has been profound, leaving a legacy ofincreased inequality and elevated debt. It hit the poorest and most vulnerablethe hardest, pushing millions more into poverty and entrenching inequality.
It is imperative that low-income developing countries aregiven the vaccines and support they need to recover. This is also anopportunity to build community resilience to minimise the impact of naturaldisasters and prevent future crises, he added./.
VNA
