Production line at the Knauf Vietnam Co Ltd’s new gypsumboard plant in the northern port city of Hai Phong (Photo: VNA)Hanoi (VNA) - Vietnam’s GDP in the second quarter of this year is forecast toexpand 5.6 percent or 6.27 percent, depending on two scenarios, expert said.
DangDuc Anh, Director of the National Centre for Socio-Economic Information andForecast (NCEIF)’s analysis and forecast department, said this at a discussionon the country’s macro-economic growth forecast, held in Hanoi on April 5.
Underthe first scenario of 5.6 percent GDP growth, Anh said that processing andmanufacturing industries in Q2 would grow higher than in the first quarter, andthe slowdown of the mining industry would be lower than that in Q1. The foreignexchange rate would be relatively stable and credit growth would continue torise in Q2, Anh said, adding that disbursement of State investment capitalwould be also higher than Q1.
Inthe second scenario, the GDP would grow 6.27 percent in Q2, owing to therecovery of the mining sector, with exploitation output at the same level as2016; the disbursement of State investment capital would be strong; and theprocessing and manufacturing industry would grow higher than it did during thesame period last year.
TheQ2 GDP in 2016 expanded 5.57 percent.
Atthe discussion, experts pointed out that Vietnam’s economy would be influencedsignificantly by global scenarios such as the recovery of world trade andeconomy, oil price fluctuations and development of the global finance market inthe wake of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike.
Inthe domestic market, business confidence of local enterprises is stable,experts said. More than 50 percent of the firms expect their number of businesscontracts in Q2 to be higher than Q1.
Investmentby private and foreign direct investment firms is also expected to rise in Q2owing to the Government’s efforts to improve the business climate.
Tomeet the Government’s GDP growth target of 6.7 percent in 2017, NCEIF director NguyenThi Mai Thu suggested that the State work to further stabilise the macroeconomy to be able to create more confidence among investors and the businesscommunity. It will also be necessary to speed up the disbursement of Stateinvestment capital and Government bonds, she added.
TheGovernment should also closely monitor the implementation of tasks raised inits Resolution 19/2016/NQ-CP on improving the business climate and the nationalcompetitive edge, and on the action programme on economic restructuring in the2017-20 period.
Thoughexports are forecast to rise significantly in the next few months, expert CanVan Luc recommended that export firms be active in material resources.
Accordingto the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam’s GDP growth in the firstquarter of 2017 was only 5.1 percent, lower than the 6.72 percent and 5.48 percentgrowth rates during the same period in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
HaQuang Tuyen, director of GSO’s national account department, said there arethree reasons why the growth rate has been weaker than forecast in Q1.
First,the lingering effects of drought and saltwater intrusion from last year led toa sharp drop in rice production, which led to a contraction in the plantcultivation sub-sector.
Second,industrial growth slowed to 4.1 percent against 7.4 percent recorded in thefirst three months of 2016, mainly the result of a manufacturing slowdown.Notably, electronic production shrank 1 percent compared to the 11.3 percentgrowth last year because of Samsung’s poor performance.
Third,the mining sector has been hit by the Government’s attempts to balance growthand the exploitation of natural resources, as part of its drive to restructurethe economy and renew the growth model.-VNA
DangDuc Anh, Director of the National Centre for Socio-Economic Information andForecast (NCEIF)’s analysis and forecast department, said this at a discussionon the country’s macro-economic growth forecast, held in Hanoi on April 5.
Underthe first scenario of 5.6 percent GDP growth, Anh said that processing andmanufacturing industries in Q2 would grow higher than in the first quarter, andthe slowdown of the mining industry would be lower than that in Q1. The foreignexchange rate would be relatively stable and credit growth would continue torise in Q2, Anh said, adding that disbursement of State investment capitalwould be also higher than Q1.
Inthe second scenario, the GDP would grow 6.27 percent in Q2, owing to therecovery of the mining sector, with exploitation output at the same level as2016; the disbursement of State investment capital would be strong; and theprocessing and manufacturing industry would grow higher than it did during thesame period last year.
TheQ2 GDP in 2016 expanded 5.57 percent.
Atthe discussion, experts pointed out that Vietnam’s economy would be influencedsignificantly by global scenarios such as the recovery of world trade andeconomy, oil price fluctuations and development of the global finance market inthe wake of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike.
Inthe domestic market, business confidence of local enterprises is stable,experts said. More than 50 percent of the firms expect their number of businesscontracts in Q2 to be higher than Q1.
Investmentby private and foreign direct investment firms is also expected to rise in Q2owing to the Government’s efforts to improve the business climate.
Tomeet the Government’s GDP growth target of 6.7 percent in 2017, NCEIF director NguyenThi Mai Thu suggested that the State work to further stabilise the macroeconomy to be able to create more confidence among investors and the businesscommunity. It will also be necessary to speed up the disbursement of Stateinvestment capital and Government bonds, she added.
TheGovernment should also closely monitor the implementation of tasks raised inits Resolution 19/2016/NQ-CP on improving the business climate and the nationalcompetitive edge, and on the action programme on economic restructuring in the2017-20 period.
Thoughexports are forecast to rise significantly in the next few months, expert CanVan Luc recommended that export firms be active in material resources.
Accordingto the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam’s GDP growth in the firstquarter of 2017 was only 5.1 percent, lower than the 6.72 percent and 5.48 percentgrowth rates during the same period in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
HaQuang Tuyen, director of GSO’s national account department, said there arethree reasons why the growth rate has been weaker than forecast in Q1.
First,the lingering effects of drought and saltwater intrusion from last year led toa sharp drop in rice production, which led to a contraction in the plantcultivation sub-sector.
Second,industrial growth slowed to 4.1 percent against 7.4 percent recorded in thefirst three months of 2016, mainly the result of a manufacturing slowdown.Notably, electronic production shrank 1 percent compared to the 11.3 percentgrowth last year because of Samsung’s poor performance.
Third,the mining sector has been hit by the Government’s attempts to balance growthand the exploitation of natural resources, as part of its drive to restructurethe economy and renew the growth model.-VNA
VNA
