Representatives discuss Vietnam’s economic prospects in 2019. (Photo: VNA)Hanoi (VNS/VNA) - Vietnamhas experienced a year of socio-economic achievements. For example, economicgrowth continues at a high level; the macroeconomic environment remains stable;inflation is under control; the trade surplus is at record levels; and theState budget deficit is stable.
The statement was made by NguyenDinh Cung, Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management(CIEM), at a conference held in Hanoi on January 17.
“More importantly, themacroeconomic foundation continues to be strengthened, the balance of monetaryand fiscal governance is maintained even in the context of external shocks andcyclical growth risks. Therefore, Vietnam still has favourable conditions toconduct fundamental reforms to economic institutions as well as its businessenvironment," Cung said.
According to CIEM’s report, in2019, Vietnam’s GDP growth is forecast at 6.93 percent, export growth isestimated at 9.4 percent, trade surplus at 2.04 billion USD and the averageconsumer price is expected to increase about 3.88 percent.
The report also analyses theeffects of the fourth industrial revolution and the country’s readiness toparticipate in the revolution. As a result, it concludes that Vietnam will seegreat benefits from participating in Industry 4.0.
Participation in the fourthindustrial revolution will determine the pace of economic restructuring, whiletransforming the growth model to achieve higher productivity, bettercompetitiveness and greater levels of prosperity, said Nguyen Anh Duong,from CIEM’s Macroeconomic Policy Department.
In addition to improving thebusiness environment in accordance with international practices and developingsectors with comparative advantages, Vietnam should focus on improvingtechnology, innovation and quality of human resources as well as the quality ofpublic services, Duong suggested.
The confidence of the domesticand foreign business community continues to increase after the Government’scommitment to reform as well as the ability of the Government to respondeffectively to external shocks. New free trade agreements (CPTPP, EVFTA, RCEP)can create additional impetus for reform and access to resources (skills,technology, capital) from the outside.
According to Cung, Vietnam shouldcontinue to handle the fundamental challenge of institutional quality,infrastructure and human resources. Strategic competition between the US andChina continues, forcing Vietnam to consider more carefully its participationin initiatives involving these two countries. Economic, trade and investmentactivities may face a number of uncertainties, especially in the first half of2019, due to the risk of economic decline in many key economies.
Cung also emphasises that policyshould continue to focus on improving microeconomic foundations and innovatingeconomic institutions in the direction of being more friendly to theenvironment, and effectively handling risks in a volatile internationaleconomic environment.
The event was organised by CIEMin cooperation with the Australian-funded programme Aus4Reform.-VNS/VNA
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