The HCM Stock Exchange (HoSE) in HCM City (Photo hsx.com)The VN-Index, which tracks the performance of the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange(HoSE), closed above the resistance area of 1,100 points, equivalent to 1,120points of the VN30-Index, in the last trading week. Although cash flow has notimproved much, supply pressure has not put great pressure on the market.
The market is expected to continue to be supported and gain points in the nexttrading sessions. Therefore, investors can still expect the market to expandthe uptrend and exploit some short-term opportunities in stocks with positiveaccumulation background, said Viet Dragon Securities Co.
2022 was an eventful year for the Vietnamese stock market with many recordsset.
After a prosperous 2021, the VN-Index continued to stay at itshistoric peak for the first three months of 2022. However, the market thendeclined, putting itself on the list of the worst performers in the world. Asof December 27, the benchmark had dropped 34.2% to 1,004.57 points, from the1,520-point peak gained in April.
In some months in 2022, half a million trading accounts were opened. Foreigninvestors’ net purchases reached a record high. The liquidity of some shares attimes reached hundreds of millions of units each trading session.
In November and December, the market witnessed the strongestrecovery sessions in the world.
In 2023, economic growth will be somewhat slower than the previousyear. Some pressure from tight monetary policy in the world will make moneyflow into the stock market more difficult, said La Giang Trung, CEO of PassionInvestment Co.
“Two major factors affecting the stock market in 2023 are cash flow and theprocess of restructuring and shifting resources of the economy. If interestrates continue to rise sharply, the stock market will face difficulties,whereas when interest rates cool down, it can help the market grow,” he added.
“I am quite optimistic about the picture of the stock market in2023. The first three to six months of the year will be a period of continueddifficulties. But when the difficulties are over, the monetary policy willstart to be loosened, which will open a new cycle for the stock market. Thenthe market will easily conquer new heights in the following years.”
|There are two scenarios for the stock market in 2023. Firstly, thebottom of the VN-Index this year will not be lower than the level of 873 pointsset in 2022, and the market will go up gradually.
Secondly, the VN-Index will look for a new bottom beforerecovering at the end of the year. The market may fall to the old bottom ofabout 780-800 points. This possibility becomes real if the US economy fallsinto a sharp recession in 2023.
With the forecast that monetary policy will be eased soon in thesecond quarter of 2023, the market can increase by 50% from the bottom,equivalent to 1,200 points at the end of this year. In 2023, there may be quitebig fluctuations, but the general trend towards the end of the year is stillpositive, Trung said./.
VNA
