Illustrative photo. (Source: VNA)Singapore (VNA) – Vietnam’s effective containment of COVID-19 should allow it tomake a quicker rebound than most other economies in the region and its GDPgrowth can be around 2.3 percent this year, Sian Fenner, an economist fromOxford Economics wrote in a July 14 report.
With anexpected recovery in the second half of the year, Fenner forecast the country’sGDP to grow 2.3 percent in 2020, slowing from 7.02 percent last year, followedby 8 percent growth in 2021.
But thecountry remains vulnerable to external developments, particularly thoseaffecting trade, tourism, and FDI, she added.
"Whilstencouraging, we remain cautious in our outlook for momentum, following theinitial bounce-back post lockdowns. Indeed, part of the recent rebound inretail sales reflects the release of pent-up demand," said the report.
FDI isexpected to pick up in the second half, with Vietnam's labour dynamics andgeographical proximity to China ensuring that it remains an attractivedestination for investment, particularly in manufacturing.
However,ongoing restrictions on international travel will continue to hinder tourism, with government efforts topromote domestic travel still unlikely to offset the fall in internationaltravel.
And withexports accounting for over 80 percent of Vietnam's GDP, the pace of recoverywill rely on global trade momentum.
One keydownside risk is a second wave of the coronavirus and renewed global lockdowns.Under this scenario, Vietnam may only achieve 1.5 percent growth this year./.
VNA
