Experts point to 2024 economic growth engines

Standard Chartered Bank maintains robust 2024 GDP growth forecast of 6.7%. (Photo: baodautu.vn)

Hanoi (VNA) – Production, export,real estate, and private investment are among the factors which are expected to drivethe national economic growth next year.

Production and export are strongly recovering thanksto increasing orders, Dinh Quang Hinh, head of the Macro and Market StrategyDepartment of VNDirect Securities Corporation (VNDS), told Lao dong (Labour) newspaper.

He said Vietnam’s export revenue is projected torise 7.5-8.0% in 2024, adding production recovery will also stimulate the demandfor the import materials, machines and equipment.

Besides, improvements in foreign direct investmentin Vietnam in the second half of this year and next will also play acrucial role in the recovery, Hinh continued.

The expert pointed out that rosy signs in theindustry, employment and wage will boost domestic consumption, referring to thenew salary policy to be applied from next July, along with 28 trillion VND (1.15billion USD) to be spent on new pensions and social insurance benefits.  

The real estate is bouncing back. (Source: VNA)

Moreover, the real estate is bouncing back as itslegal and financial obstacles are being removed, lending interest rates have beenlowered and the corporate bond market heats up, helping clear up capitalproblems facing real estate developers, he said.

Hinh noted his hope that private investment willrecover next year thanks to new projects and production scale-up to meet thegrowing domestic demand and new orders.

FiinGroup President Nguyen Quang Thuan, however, notedmajor risks to the economy in the year due to both intrinsic and extrinsic factors,explaining that the recovery prospects of the economies that are Vietnam’s bigpartners remain uncertain amid high international interest rates.

Meanwhile, the domestic real estate would remain “frozen”longer than expected, he elaborated, citing a forecast by organisations thatit will only reboot in mid-2024, without giving specific time.

Earlier, the United Overseas Bank (UOB) hasmaintained its economic growth forecast for Vietnam at 5.2% for 2023 and 6% for2024 while saying that Vietnam will continue to cut regulatory interestrates in the remaining months of this year to balance economic growth andinflation pressure.

The ADB also said Vietnam's economic growth isexpected to stay at 5.8% in 2023 and 6.0% in 2024.

Standard Chartered Bank maintained robust 2024 GDPgrowth forecast of 6.7% for Vietnam in its latest macro-economic updates./.

VNA