Kuala Lumpur (VNA) - Economists have maintainedtheir 2020 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for Malaysia afterNovember exports fared better than the consensus estimate.
Hong Leong Investment Bank Research's (HLIB) Felicia Lingand Goh Khing Mae were quoted by local media as saying that export growthpicked up to 4.3 percent year on year in November, faring better than the 3.1percent year on year consensus estimate.
While downside risks continued to cloud the recovery inoverall trade activity owing to the resurgence of COVID-19 cases, they opinedthat vaccine roll-outs in some major economies are anticipated to alleviatesome of the risks in 2021.
They maintained their 2020 and 2021 GDP growth forecasts forMalaysia at -5.5 percent and 6 percent respectively.
Meanwhile, Affin Hwang Capital analysts Alan Tan Chew Leong,Naomi Margaret Kasimir and Mas Aida Che Mansor maintained their full-yeargrowth forecast of a contraction of 5 percent year on year in 2020.
For full-year 2021, they expect real GDP growth to turnaround and expand by 6 percent, lower than the official forecast of between 6.5percent and 7.5 percent.
They noted that uncertainties surrounding the development ofthe COVID-19 pandemic would continue to be a downside risk to the growthoutlook, especially with the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in some main tradingpartners of the country, such as the US and European Union (EU) countries.
CGS-CIMB Research economist Michelle Chia and Lim Yee Pingalso maintained their export and import growth forecasts of 10.9 percent and11.5 percent respectively for 2021, driven by vaccine and broader economicnormalisation.
They also maintained a constructive view of the GDP recovery( 7.5 percent in 2021 versus -5 percent in 2020), with inoculation programmesbeing gradually rolled out domestically and abroad being a key catalyst for therelaxation of mobility restrictions.
Meanwhile, Public Invest Research analystDr Rosnani Rasul highlighted that trade could produce a full recovery in2021, especially after challenging periods caused by US-China trade tensionsand the COVID-19 pandemic.
The prospect of mass global COVID-19 inoculations will pavethe way for demand to recover and for the supply chain to normalise.
The breakthrough in COVID-19 vaccines will remove thelargest drag on growth and therefore an expected rebound in trade in 2021,she said./.
Hong Leong Investment Bank Research's (HLIB) Felicia Lingand Goh Khing Mae were quoted by local media as saying that export growthpicked up to 4.3 percent year on year in November, faring better than the 3.1percent year on year consensus estimate.
While downside risks continued to cloud the recovery inoverall trade activity owing to the resurgence of COVID-19 cases, they opinedthat vaccine roll-outs in some major economies are anticipated to alleviatesome of the risks in 2021.
They maintained their 2020 and 2021 GDP growth forecasts forMalaysia at -5.5 percent and 6 percent respectively.
Meanwhile, Affin Hwang Capital analysts Alan Tan Chew Leong,Naomi Margaret Kasimir and Mas Aida Che Mansor maintained their full-yeargrowth forecast of a contraction of 5 percent year on year in 2020.
For full-year 2021, they expect real GDP growth to turnaround and expand by 6 percent, lower than the official forecast of between 6.5percent and 7.5 percent.
They noted that uncertainties surrounding the development ofthe COVID-19 pandemic would continue to be a downside risk to the growthoutlook, especially with the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in some main tradingpartners of the country, such as the US and European Union (EU) countries.
CGS-CIMB Research economist Michelle Chia and Lim Yee Pingalso maintained their export and import growth forecasts of 10.9 percent and11.5 percent respectively for 2021, driven by vaccine and broader economicnormalisation.
They also maintained a constructive view of the GDP recovery( 7.5 percent in 2021 versus -5 percent in 2020), with inoculation programmesbeing gradually rolled out domestically and abroad being a key catalyst for therelaxation of mobility restrictions.
Meanwhile, Public Invest Research analystDr Rosnani Rasul highlighted that trade could produce a full recovery in2021, especially after challenging periods caused by US-China trade tensionsand the COVID-19 pandemic.
The prospect of mass global COVID-19 inoculations will pavethe way for demand to recover and for the supply chain to normalise.
The breakthrough in COVID-19 vaccines will remove thelargest drag on growth and therefore an expected rebound in trade in 2021,she said./.
VNA
