Economic recovery forecast to boost stock market

Vietnam's stock market will consolidate in a gradual uptrend during the rest of the year, fuelled by expectations over stable macroeconomic recovery, according to Vietcombank Securities.
Vietnam's stock market will consolidate in a gradual uptrend duringthe rest of the year, fuelled by expectations over stable macroeconomicrecovery, according to Vietcombank Securities.

Le Xuan Nghia,member of the National Financial Supervisory Council, said at aVietcombank Securities' workshop that economic recovery was on track andthat it would become the basis for the stock market's growth.

Nghiawas quoted by Dau Tu Chung Khoan (Securities Investment) as saying thatthe gross domestic product (GDP) had been growing since last year'sthird quarter, and that the council expected the nation's GDP growth forthe whole year to reach between 5.7 and 5.8 percent.

Theconsumer confidence index also saw improvement in June compared with thebeginning of this year, despite fall in consumer confidence in May dueto the East Sea tensions.

The signs of recovery in therealty market, coupled with the efforts to resolve non-performing debtsin the banking system, also had positive impacts on the stock market.

Thebenchmark indices on both the national stock exchanges soared by morethan 15 percent in the first seven months of this year, after postinggrowths of 22 percent on the southern bourse and 13 percent on thenorthern bourse last year.

According to Quach Thuy Linh, analystfrom Vietcombank Securities, the stock market will not grow as fast asin the year's first half, adding that it was in an accumulative periodafter growing rapidly for a long time.

However, the stock marketremained an appealing investment channel for investors in comparison toothers such as gold, deposits, foreign currencies or the propertymarket, according to Vietcombank Securities' report about the stockmarket's prospects in the second half of the year.

The reportpointed out that the gold market had stabilised with the State Bank ofVietnam 's efforts. Deposits were also less attractive after theceiling for mobilising interest rate was cut by 1 percent to the current5.5 to 6 percent in the first six months of this year. Further cuts areexpected.

The price-to-earnings ratio of the Ho Chi Minh StockExchange fell slightly from 14.25 in the first quarter to 13.59 in thesecond quarter, but it was still lower than the other countries in theregion.

This showed that Vietnam 's stocks were relatively cheaper and appealing to foreign investors.-VNA

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