A car assembly plant of Hyundai Thanh Cong (Photo: VNA)With an economic panorama not sobright in H1, a growth rate of 6.5% for this year is a highly challenging target, they told a macro-economic forum held by the Ho Chi Minh City University ofBanking (HUB) on July 18.
Except for 2020 that was impacted bythe COVID-19 pandemic, the GDP growth rates in the first and second quarters of2023 were the lowest compared to the same periods of recent years. Growth wasnot positive in all sectors, especially industry and construction, an HUBresearch group pointed out.
Industrialproduction is facing a year full of difficulties due to falling consumptiondemand in many countries that are large trading partners of Vietnam as they havebeen tightening their monetary policy to curb inflation.
The industry and construction sector’sadded value increased by a mere 0.44% in H1, the slowest H1 expansion since2011, and contributed only 0.15 percentage point to the overall growth in theeconomy’s added value.
Giventhe strong decline in this sector, experts held that this is one of the mainfactors affecting Vietnam’s economic growth in H2.
The factory of the Tsuchiya Tsco Co. Ltd in the Thang Long Industrial Park of Vinh Phuc province (Photo: VNA)Some growth hampering factors includethe possibility of global economic recession, the monetary policies tightened to rein in inflation in developed countries, along with geopolitical tensions insome countries and their global influence. As a result, industrial productionwill continue enduring severe impacts, and the processing and manufacturingindustry may lose its role as the biggest growth driver, he elaborated.
Basingon the H1 economic situation, the research group issued two growth scenariosfor 2023. Accordingly, GDP may rise by 5.8 - 6.3% in the low-case scenario, orreach the Government-set target or even higher, 6.5 - 6.8%, in the positive one.
For his part, HUB Vice Rector Assoc.Prof. and Dr Nguyen Khac Quoc Bao perceived that despite numerous difficultiesand challenges, this year’s economic growth will reach the target of 6.5% whileinflation be within the cap of 4.5% as predicted by some stateagencies.
Atthe forum, experts said the 2023 growth will be fueled by some important demandfactors.
The recovery of consumption demandcurbed during the pandemic-hit years has yet to show signs of stagnationdespite less optimistic growth forecasts. Efforts to disburse public investmentmay help foster construction and related economic activities in H2. The monetarypolicy may be eased further to stimulate demand. Besides, the re-opening of theChinese market is expected to help shore up global supply chains, as well asimport and tourism demand from the world’s second largest economy, they explained./.
VNA
