Farmers harvest coffee in Tho Son commune of Bu Dang district, Binh Phuoc province. (Photo: VNA)Coffee prices were around 67,200 – 68,000 VND per kilogram in TayNguyen (Central Highlands) provinces of Lam Dong, Dak Lak and Dak Nong, about 900-1,000 VND per kg higher than last week and 8,000 VND more than early December.
According to Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam, for the week endingDecember 24, coffee prices increased by 1.85% for Arabica and 0.42% forRobusta.
Farmers are delaying their sales with expectations of higherprices.
Despite being good news to farmers, high coffee prices push exportenterprises into a lot of difficulty in collecting enough coffee for theirsigned contracts.
Vicofa’s Vice President Do Ha Nam said that unpredictable coffeeprice fluctuations caused difficulties for exports. In the 2022-23 crop,several domestic exporters could not deliver in time because of rising prices,partly as an impact of hoarding. “During the past three decades, never have wethought that Vietnam could be in a shortage of coffee,” Nam said.
The association has estimated that the coffee shortage of signed contracts isaround 80,000 – 150,000 tonnes, waiting for the coming harvest season to befulfilled.
Vietnam exported more than 120,000 tonnes of coffee in November,half of which was to fulfull orders of the previous harvest crop, he said.
Coffee prices are forecast to be around 60,000 – 70,000 VND per kg in the comingmonths and are expected to decrease when Indonesia and Brazil start new coffeeharvest seasons in April and May.
In the new crop, the asking prices of green coffee reached 60,000 VNDper kg for delivery in December 2023 and January 2024 – an unprecedented pricerecorded at the beginning of harvest season due to high purchasing demand fromexport enterprises who are worried that there would be no coffee to buy fromApril or May next year. In 2023, coffee was out of stock from June.
According to Vicofa the European markets are the largestmarket for Vietnamese coffee, which consume around 40-50% of the country’sexports and still have good demand for coffee.
A report about the coffee market by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)issued last week showed that the global coffee inventory was estimated at 26.5million 60-kg bags, 16.7% lower than the previous estimate and the lowestinventory level in the past 12 years.
The USDA forecasts that world coffee production for 2023-24 willreach 171.4 million bags, 6.9 million bags higher than the previous crop.
Vietnam production is forecast to add 300,000 bags to reach 27.5million. The cultivated area is forecast to remain unchanged, with nearly 95%of total output remaining as Robusta. However, with lower total supplies due tolast year’s stock drawdown, bean exports are forecast to decline by 2.4 millionbags to 23 million, according to the USDA’s report.
In the context of tense supply, Nam said that Vietnam is focusingon solutions to promote the sustainable development of the coffee industry,including ensuring origin traceability and meeting the EU’s regulations ondeforestation./.
VNA
