Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) is hoped to grow 6.46% in the third scenario when the global economy will see positive changes, and Vietnam will take drastic actions in reform and management (Photo: VietnamPlus)Hanoi (VNA) – The Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) put forwards three scenarios for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2023 at a seminar in Hanoi on July 10 to announce a report on the domestic economy in the first half of this year, and prospects for the second half.
Specifically, Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 5.34% this year under the first scenario.
The first scenario assumes the global economic development matches assessments of international organisations and Vietnam, under which the country’s export turnover is projected to drop by 5.64%, and its consumer price index (CPI) will rise 3.43%, with a trade surplus of 9.1 billion USD.
Under the second as, given monetary and fiscal easing in Vietnam, the GDP growth is set at 5.72%, export earnings are forecast to decrease by 3.66%, and the CPI is predicted to expand by 3.87%, with a trade surplus of 10.3 billion USD.
In the last scenario in which the global economy will see positive changes, and Vietnam will take drastic actions in reform and management, the GDP is hoped to grow by 6.46%, export revenue will drop only 2.17%, the CPI will go up 4.39%, and the trade surplus will stand at 6.8 billion USD.
At the seminar to announce a report on the domestic economy in the first half of this year, and prospects for the second half. (Photo: VietnamPlus)According to the institute’s report, the first six months have given Vietnam an idea of socio-economic requirements for the second half as well as the coming years.
Head of the CIEM's General Research Department Nguyen Anh Duong called difficulties in the first two quarters “positive pressure” for the Government, ministries, agencies and localities to take more drastic actions in management and reform in the time ahead.
Vietnam's economic outlook in the last months of 2023 may be influenced by many factors, Duong said, mentioning the ability to maintain the level of monetary tightening in key economies, as well as the progress of implementing tasks in the socio-economic development and recovery programme and Vietnam's capacity to harmonise and parallelise digital and green transformation
CIEM Director Tran Thi Hong Minh said since the beginning of this year, the Government has paid attention to perfecting institutions and policies, tapping investment resources for the national economy, and improving the business environment.
Despite the gap with the set target, the economic growth has seen improvements between quarters, with 3.28% in the first and 4.14% in the second, she said, adding that the growth in H1 reached 3.72%.
Economic growth has seen improvements between quarters, with 3.28% in the first and 4.14% in the second quarter. (Photo: VietnamPlus)In the six months, the total social investment exceeded 1.35 quadrillion VND (57.05 billion USD), up 4.7% year-on-year. As of June 30, the disbursement rate of public investment reached 30.5% of the target assigned by the Prime Minister, higher than the 27.7% recorded in the same period last year. The country also attracted 13.43 billion USD in foreign direct investment (FDI), down 4.35%, while FDI disbursement went up 0.5%.
The total export value in the reviewed period was estimated at 164.5 billion USD, down 12.1%, and import was 152.2 billion USD, down 18.2%, resulting in a trade surplus of over 12.2 billion USD.
Participants at the workshop looked into factors that may cause difficulties to the national socio-economic development in the remaining months, and proposed orientations and policy solutions./.
