Experts have predicted that China will continue to take larger stepsafter blatantly anchoring the Haiyang Shiyou-981 oil rig in Vietnam’sexclusive economic zone and continental shelf, the VietnamNet Bridgereported on June 10.
China’s deployment of the rig is a step inthe realisation of its ambitions to control the East Sea. What willhappen after the Haiyang Shiyou-981 oil rig? Prof. Dr. Tran Nam Tien,Deputy Director of the East Sea Research Centre of the Ho Chi Minh CityUniversity of Social Sciences and Humanities, and Le Hong Hiep, PhDresearch student at the University of New South Wales, Australia, spokewith the Ho Chi Minh City Law Newspaper about China’s future plans.
*What shows that the Haiyang Shiyou-981 oil rig is a carefully arranged step by China?
LeHong Diep: Firstly, China has implemented administrative measures suchas strengthening its marine management agencies, establishing theso-called Sansha city, and issuing a fishing ban on the East Sea.
Secondly,China has been building its naval and air forces through modernisationprogrammes. Currently, the Chinese defence budget is the largest inAsia, beyond the budget of all 10 Southeast Asian countries.
Inaddition, China has invested largely in semi-armed law enforcementforces such as maritime surveillance and fisheries administration, andothers.
Thirdly, China has invested in economic instruments tostrengthen its claims in the field. Besides the oil rig, China hasenhanced the capability of its offshore fishing fleet, with the fishprocessing vessel Hainan Baosha 001, with 32,000 tonnes of payload, as atypical example.
Fourthly, China has applied combined political- diplomatic measures, including the official announcement of theU-shaped line at the United Nations in 2009, delaying the signature of aCode of Conduct in the East Sea (COC), and dividing the Association ofSoutheast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on the issue of East Sea, among others.
Finally,the clearest manifestation in recent time is that China has stepped upaggressive activities in the field to realise its plans, from cuttingthe cable of the seismic survey vessel of Vietnam to occupying theScarborough Shoal of the Philippines, and surrounding Co May Shoal(Second Thomas Shoal), to preparing to build a runway on Gac Ma Reef(Johnson Reef), and now anchoring the Haiyang Shiyou-981 oil rig inVietnam’s waters.
*What does China really want in the East Sea?
Prof.Dr. Tran Nam Tien: The recent actions of China in the East Sea showthat Chinese leaders mainly see the East Sea from the perspective ofgeopolitical and geostrategic strategy. China's real ambition does notstop in the East Sea, but beyond, their vision is the ambitious "stringof pearls" strategy, connecting the East Sea with the Indian Ocean.
The"string of pearls" strategy was created recently to solve the strategicpriorities of China: ensuring the safety of tankers carrying oil andgas from the Persian Gulf.
*What will China do after the Haiyang Shiyou-981 oil rig?
Prof. Dr. Tran Nam Tien: Following the blatant deployment of the oil rig, China will continue to take bigger steps.
Itis China’s current powerful development, dependence on the supply ofresources and energy from abroad, particularly oil and natural gas, thatis playing an important role in forming China’s development policy andstrategy.
In addition, the building of the "string of pearls"strategy aims to ensure the ability to control the Indian Ocean, if itever clashed with one of its strongest potential opponents, namelyIndia.
*What will China do in response to the reaction of Vietnam and the international community?
LeHong Hiep: To perform its hegemonic ambitions in the sea, in particularin the Haiyang Shiyou-981 oil rig case, China will not give up easily.At least they will keep the drilling rig until August 15 as they stated.
Over the long term, considering factors of internal resourcesand strategies, to finish its hegemonic ambitions on the sea, on the onehand, the Chinese will continue to strengthen its "hard power,"including naval and air force capacity and paramilitary forces. On theother hand, it will seek to divide public opinion, usingdiplomatic-economic measures to buy off support and try to isolateVietnam. There is a certainty that China will be increasingly aggressiveand decisive in creating a “fait accompli” to squeeze Vietnam.
*What risks will China face in its expansion strategy?
LeHong Hiep: China's biggest risk is that their actions will destabiliseregional strategic environment, leading to fears of neighbouringcountries and the intervention of external powers, especially the UnitedStates.
If China continues to pursue its marine ambitions in anaggressive way and defy international law as it does at present, it islikely that many regional countries will work together to cope withChina’s pressure, and at the same time the US-China strategiccompetition will have good reasons to rise.
In the long term, thepossibility of a new Cold War between China and the US and its alliescan happen. If so, China will face difficulty, not only in the militaryand strategy, but also in socio-economic development. That could be anoose that they could get caught in.-VNA
China’s deployment of the rig is a step inthe realisation of its ambitions to control the East Sea. What willhappen after the Haiyang Shiyou-981 oil rig? Prof. Dr. Tran Nam Tien,Deputy Director of the East Sea Research Centre of the Ho Chi Minh CityUniversity of Social Sciences and Humanities, and Le Hong Hiep, PhDresearch student at the University of New South Wales, Australia, spokewith the Ho Chi Minh City Law Newspaper about China’s future plans.
*What shows that the Haiyang Shiyou-981 oil rig is a carefully arranged step by China?
LeHong Diep: Firstly, China has implemented administrative measures suchas strengthening its marine management agencies, establishing theso-called Sansha city, and issuing a fishing ban on the East Sea.
Secondly,China has been building its naval and air forces through modernisationprogrammes. Currently, the Chinese defence budget is the largest inAsia, beyond the budget of all 10 Southeast Asian countries.
Inaddition, China has invested largely in semi-armed law enforcementforces such as maritime surveillance and fisheries administration, andothers.
Thirdly, China has invested in economic instruments tostrengthen its claims in the field. Besides the oil rig, China hasenhanced the capability of its offshore fishing fleet, with the fishprocessing vessel Hainan Baosha 001, with 32,000 tonnes of payload, as atypical example.
Fourthly, China has applied combined political- diplomatic measures, including the official announcement of theU-shaped line at the United Nations in 2009, delaying the signature of aCode of Conduct in the East Sea (COC), and dividing the Association ofSoutheast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on the issue of East Sea, among others.
Finally,the clearest manifestation in recent time is that China has stepped upaggressive activities in the field to realise its plans, from cuttingthe cable of the seismic survey vessel of Vietnam to occupying theScarborough Shoal of the Philippines, and surrounding Co May Shoal(Second Thomas Shoal), to preparing to build a runway on Gac Ma Reef(Johnson Reef), and now anchoring the Haiyang Shiyou-981 oil rig inVietnam’s waters.
*What does China really want in the East Sea?
Prof.Dr. Tran Nam Tien: The recent actions of China in the East Sea showthat Chinese leaders mainly see the East Sea from the perspective ofgeopolitical and geostrategic strategy. China's real ambition does notstop in the East Sea, but beyond, their vision is the ambitious "stringof pearls" strategy, connecting the East Sea with the Indian Ocean.
The"string of pearls" strategy was created recently to solve the strategicpriorities of China: ensuring the safety of tankers carrying oil andgas from the Persian Gulf.
*What will China do after the Haiyang Shiyou-981 oil rig?
Prof. Dr. Tran Nam Tien: Following the blatant deployment of the oil rig, China will continue to take bigger steps.
Itis China’s current powerful development, dependence on the supply ofresources and energy from abroad, particularly oil and natural gas, thatis playing an important role in forming China’s development policy andstrategy.
In addition, the building of the "string of pearls"strategy aims to ensure the ability to control the Indian Ocean, if itever clashed with one of its strongest potential opponents, namelyIndia.
*What will China do in response to the reaction of Vietnam and the international community?
LeHong Hiep: To perform its hegemonic ambitions in the sea, in particularin the Haiyang Shiyou-981 oil rig case, China will not give up easily.At least they will keep the drilling rig until August 15 as they stated.
Over the long term, considering factors of internal resourcesand strategies, to finish its hegemonic ambitions on the sea, on the onehand, the Chinese will continue to strengthen its "hard power,"including naval and air force capacity and paramilitary forces. On theother hand, it will seek to divide public opinion, usingdiplomatic-economic measures to buy off support and try to isolateVietnam. There is a certainty that China will be increasingly aggressiveand decisive in creating a “fait accompli” to squeeze Vietnam.
*What risks will China face in its expansion strategy?
LeHong Hiep: China's biggest risk is that their actions will destabiliseregional strategic environment, leading to fears of neighbouringcountries and the intervention of external powers, especially the UnitedStates.
If China continues to pursue its marine ambitions in anaggressive way and defy international law as it does at present, it islikely that many regional countries will work together to cope withChina’s pressure, and at the same time the US-China strategiccompetition will have good reasons to rise.
In the long term, thepossibility of a new Cold War between China and the US and its alliescan happen. If so, China will face difficulty, not only in the militaryand strategy, but also in socio-economic development. That could be anoose that they could get caught in.-VNA
