Singapore (VNA) – Thegross domestic product growth of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) plus China, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ASEAN 3) is likely to reach 4.6% this year and 4.5% next year, according to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)'s latest report.
The growth for ASEAN is forecast at 4.9% and 5.2%, respectively.
The ASEAN+3 region is expected to remainresilient notwithstanding the strong headwinds of weaker external demand andtighter global financial conditions, AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor said at apress conference on April 6.
Tourismand intra-regional trade will be boosted by the recovery of China's economy,helping mitigate softer external demand from the US and Europe, he said.
Domestic demand is expectedto remain robust, with household spending to be sustained by rising income andlower inflation, according to AMRO. The organisation anticipated inflation tomoderate from 6.5% last year to 4.7% in 2023, before normalising to 3.0% nextyear.
The region’s growth prospectscould be dampened by a spike in energy prices caused by an escalation of theUkraine crisis, or weaker-than-expected recovery in China, or a sharp slowdownin the US. The US's continued monetary policy tightening amid mounting financialstability concerns could also heighten financial market volatility and sparkcontagion fears.
Drawing from the lessonslearned from the Asian financial crisis, ASEAN+3 financial systems are now moreresilient and well-regulated. However, he said, policymakers need to remainvigilant and continue to rebuild policy buffers and remain flexible ifnecessary.
In an interview with the Vietnam News Agency's resident correspondents, Khor saidthat he is very optimistic about Vietnam's economic prospects.
Vietnam isone of the countries with excellent achievements in the region, which hasachieved a very high growth rate and is attracting a lot of foreign directinvestment. However, the growth in the first quarter of 2023 was lower than expected, so the Vietnamese economy was forecast to expand by 6% this year.
AMRO expected Vietnam's GDPgrowth to reach 6.5%-7% in the second half of this year, he added./.
