The APEC Secretariat's Policy Support Unit issuednew forecasts on the eve of the 2023 APEC Economic Leaders’ Week in SanFrancisco, showing that the GDP growth of the economies would dip to 2.8% in2024 from 3.3% in 2023.
The GDP growth rate will average 2.9% in 2025 and2026, below the global average of 3.2%.
Among the key downside risks are persistent inflationassociated with export restrictions, weather conditions that have raised theprice of rice and other agricultural products, and disruptions in thefertiliser supply chain. Taming inflation could require more monetary policytightening, slowing growth further.
Trade volume growth for goods is set to rebound nextyear among the APEC economies after a largely flat 2023, rising to 4.3% forgoods exports and 3.5% for goods imports. But growth of both exports andimports are forecast to peak at 4.4% in 2025, declining slightly in 2026 due togeo-political fragmentation that is disrupting longstanding supplyrelationships./.