COVID-19 impact on GDP of some ADB members (Source: ADB)Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnamis forecast to lose some 0.41 percent of GDP due to the novel coronavirus(COVID-19) outbreak, according to the latest report by the Asian DevelopmentBank (ADB).
Under ADB’s report titled “The Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak onDeveloping Asia” released late last week, Vietnam’s damage was much better thanthat of other Asian economies, ranking ninth after Taipei (0.44 percent),Singapore (0.57 percent), Mongolia (0.74 percent), mainland China (0.76 percent),Hong Kong (0.85 percent), Thailand (1.11 percent), Cambodia (1.59 percent) andthe Maldives (2.05 percent).
According to ADB, there are several channels through which the COVID-19outbreak will affect economic activity in developing Asia and the world. Theseinclude a sharp but temporary decline in domestic consumption in China andother outbreak-affected economies, and possibly investment if the outbreakaffects views on future business activity; declines in tourism and businesstravel; spillovers of weaker demand to other sectors and economies throughtrade and production linkages; supply-side disruptions to production and trade(which are distinct from demand-side shocks spilling over through trade andproduction linkages); and effects on health such as increased disease andmortality as well as shifts in healthcare spending. Each of these is taken inturn.
ADB says developing members that will be significantly affected are those withstrong trade and production linkages with mainland China. In addition totourism-dependent economies, other developing Asian economies such as Hong Kong(China), Mongolia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taipei (China) and Vietnam willbe materially affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. Many of these economies see asignificant share of tourists from mainland China and are affected through thatchannel as well.
“The magnitude of the economic losses will depend on how the outbreak evolves,which remains highly uncertain. The range of scenarios explored in the analysissuggests a global impact in the range of 77 billion USD to 347 billion USD, or0.1 percent to 0.4 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP),” ADB said inthe report.
Ina moderate scenario, where precautionary behaviours and restrictions such astravel bans start easing three months after the outbreak intensified andrestrictions were imposed in late January, global losses could reach 156billion USD,or 0.2 percent ofglobal GDP. Mainland China would account for 103 billion USD ofthose losses – or 0.8 percent of its GDP. The rest of developing Asia would lose 22billion USD,or 0.2 percent ofits GDP./.
Under ADB’s report titled “The Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak onDeveloping Asia” released late last week, Vietnam’s damage was much better thanthat of other Asian economies, ranking ninth after Taipei (0.44 percent),Singapore (0.57 percent), Mongolia (0.74 percent), mainland China (0.76 percent),Hong Kong (0.85 percent), Thailand (1.11 percent), Cambodia (1.59 percent) andthe Maldives (2.05 percent).
According to ADB, there are several channels through which the COVID-19outbreak will affect economic activity in developing Asia and the world. Theseinclude a sharp but temporary decline in domestic consumption in China andother outbreak-affected economies, and possibly investment if the outbreakaffects views on future business activity; declines in tourism and businesstravel; spillovers of weaker demand to other sectors and economies throughtrade and production linkages; supply-side disruptions to production and trade(which are distinct from demand-side shocks spilling over through trade andproduction linkages); and effects on health such as increased disease andmortality as well as shifts in healthcare spending. Each of these is taken inturn.
ADB says developing members that will be significantly affected are those withstrong trade and production linkages with mainland China. In addition totourism-dependent economies, other developing Asian economies such as Hong Kong(China), Mongolia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taipei (China) and Vietnam willbe materially affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. Many of these economies see asignificant share of tourists from mainland China and are affected through thatchannel as well.
“The magnitude of the economic losses will depend on how the outbreak evolves,which remains highly uncertain. The range of scenarios explored in the analysissuggests a global impact in the range of 77 billion USD to 347 billion USD, or0.1 percent to 0.4 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP),” ADB said inthe report.
Ina moderate scenario, where precautionary behaviours and restrictions such astravel bans start easing three months after the outbreak intensified andrestrictions were imposed in late January, global losses could reach 156billion USD,or 0.2 percent ofglobal GDP. Mainland China would account for 103 billion USD ofthose losses – or 0.8 percent of its GDP. The rest of developing Asia would lose 22billion USD,or 0.2 percent ofits GDP./.
VNA
