2021 GDP to grow 6.72 pct. in optimistic scenario: NCIF

The National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting (NCIF) has released a forecast on Vietnam’s economic performance in 2021, with GDP growth of 6.72 percent and an average consumer price index (CPI) of 4.2 percent under an optimistic scenario.
2021 GDP to grow 6.72 pct. in optimistic scenario: NCIF ảnh 1The National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting expects Vietnam's GDP to grow by 6.72 percent in 2021 under an optimistic scenario. (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi (VNA) - The National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting (NCIF) has released a forecast on Vietnam’s economic performance in 2021, with GDP growth of 6.72 percent and an average consumer price index (CPI) of 4.2 percent under an optimistic scenario.

In the best-case scenario, the global economy recovers faster than expectations and production becomes more stable in 2021, according to a joint report from the NCIF and the UN Development Programme in Vietnam.

Meanwhile, the domestic business environment is improved, business support policies help enterprises engage more deeply into global value chains, and new generation free trade agreements (FTAs) are implemented, along with the Government’s efforts in restructuring itself in terms of organisation, technology, and digitalization, promoting Vietnam’s economic growth.

Upturn expected in exports

According to Dang Duc Anh, Vice President of the NCIF, Vietnam’s success in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic and maintaining macro-economic stability are foundations for economic recovery.

During a difficult 2020, Vietnam posted strong economic performance despite the impact of the pandemic, he said.

Commenting on Vietnam’s economic outlook in 2021, NCIF experts said the recovery of partner economies will promote its exports.

The majority of international organisations believe the global economy and major world powers will post high growth this year, especially major trading partners of Vietnam such as the US, the EU, China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea.

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement are among the positive factors supporting Vietnam in speeding up its economic recovery in 2021 and over the next five years.

Exports to the US and China may continue to be maintained amid reduced US-China trade tensions. With optimistic signs in both major economies, Vietnam’s exports may rise sharply, Anh said, adding that exports to the US could face risks as the US has labelled Vietnam a currency manipulator.

Driving role of domestic economy

According to the report, Vietnam is showing its considerable attractiveness to international investors thanks to the economy’s strong resilience and high post-pandemic recovery outlook as well as opportunities from FTAs.

The country is also forecast to benefit from the transition of supply chains to lower-cost countries. Though FDI fell about 15 percent last year in volume, capital disbursement was down just 2 percent.

The report highlighted that the domestic economy, domestic consumption, and public investment will be bright spots this year and play important roles in economic recovery.

Domestic consumption is currently contributing 68-70 percent to GDP and this is predicted to continue to rise as incomes improve.

Public investment, meanwhile, is likely to continue to be boosted thanks to the launch of major projects in 2020 and recoveries in production and business activities.

However, the NCIF report also underlined the risk from the global economy due to the complicated nature of COVID-19.

International experts pointed out that many countries are experiencing periodic crises and structural crises resulting from the pandemic, which may take them two to four years to fully overcome.

The NCIF therefore held that it will not be easy for Vietnam this year due to the impact of digitalization, protectionism, and loose connections between FDI firms and domestic small and medium-sized enterprises.

According to NCIF Deputy Director Dr Dang Duc Anh, the baseline scenario forecasts the economy to grow at about 6.17 percent and CPI to stand at 3.8 percent if the global economy rebounds and COVID-19 is gradually brought under control.

In the best-case scenario, GDP growth will reach 6.72 percent and CPI around 4.2 percent if the global economy recovers at a faster pace than expected./.

VNA

See more

Industrial factories in Tan Uyen city, the southern province of Binh Duong (Photo: VNA)

Investors upbeat about Vietnam’s industrial property market

Investors are bullish on Vietnam's industrial property market growth on the back of the nation's strategic location, sound infrastructure, and increasing demand for industrial space, particularly industrial parks that meet green standards, according to market research.

Vietnamese Ambassador to Belgium and head of the Vietnamese Delegation to the EU Nguyen Van Thao addresses the forum (Photo: VNA)

Forum connects Vietnamese, Belgian busineses

The Vietnam-Belgian business forum took place in Brussels on October 23, offering a chance for enterprises of the two countries to introduce their products and explore new cooperation opportunities.

The expos cover over 6,000 sq.m, drawing over 210 exhibitors from 10 countries and territories. (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi hosts textile & garment, fabric garment accessories expos

The Vietnam Hanoi Textile & Garment Industry and Fabric Garment Accessories Expos 2024 (HanoiTex & HanoiFabric 2024) is taking place in Hanoi on October 23 – 25 as part of a series of international exhibitions on Vietnam's textile and garment industry.

Representatives from Vietnamese and Lao agencies, localities and businesses at the opening ceremony of the Vietnam-Laos trade fair 2024 in Xiengkhouang province. (Photo: VNA)

Vietnam, Laos step up trade, tourism promotion

A Vietnam-Laos trade fair was kicked off in Phonsavanh township in Xiengkhouang province of Laos on October 23 as part of activities to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the traditional day of Vietnamese volunteer soldiers and experts in Laos (October 30, 1949 – 2024).

Illustrative photo (Photo: chinhphu.vn)

Vietnamese goods enter US through global supply chain

The Saigon Co.op Distribution Company Limited (SCD) - a member of the Ho Chi Minh City Union of Trade Cooperatives (Saigon Co.op), and STC Natural Vina Company on October 23 held a hand-over ceremony for goods that will be exported to the US.

Vietnam’s lobsters have clawed their way back onto Chinese menus after a suspension. (Photo: VNA)

Vietnam’s lobsters claw back prominence in China

Vietnam’s lobster export to the Chinese market in January-September rose 33 folds year-on-year on the back of lower prices and stronger trade ties between the two nations, the South China Morning Post said on October 22.